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新能源汽車補貼銳減 上游產業受影響更大

分類:新科技 瀏覽數:20 2019-07-05 13:30 科技訊 編輯: 厚學

新能源汽車補貼將要退坡的消息早就傳出,根據新能源研究院真鋰研究的推算,6月25日后,中國新能源電動車補貼與去年同比將銳減70%,對此,上游的動力電池生產商將遭受更大的影響。

3月26日,中國財政部、工信部、科技部和發改委四部門聯合發布了《進一步完善新能源汽車推廣應用財政補貼政策的通知》(下稱《通知》)。

根據《通知》,2019年新能源汽車補貼標準將在2018年基礎上平均退坡50%,到2020年底前退坡到位,并設置了3個月(3月26日—6月25日)的過渡期。

6月25日是新能源汽車補貼新政前夜。自此之后,新能源汽車補貼要求的電池能量密度、續航里程門檻都有所提高,地方補貼則被取消。真鋰研究總裁墨柯對界面新聞表示,根據調研,過渡期補貼大約退坡40%,“6.25”之后實際將大約退坡70%。這超過了前述通知的平均標準。

能源機構伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)5月的數據顯示,中國電池生產商占據了逾全球60%的鋰電池產能。

使得中國電池生產商在短短時間內占據大份額市場的,是中國對新能源汽車的鼓勵補貼。

補貼政策始于2009年。墨柯對界面新聞記者表示,補貼額度每年大概為300億元。

但這兩年明顯超支,每年補貼額度大致為五六百億元。“這也是今年補貼砍得兇的原因。”墨柯說。

由于補貼退坡太大,傳統燃油汽車又處在國五排放標準升國六的轉換期、具有去庫存壓力,墨柯認為車企生產新能源汽車的動力不足。

根據中國汽車工業協會今年1月份的數據,2018年,中國銷售了101.6萬輛新能源乘用車,加上商用車輛,去年中國一共銷售了125.6萬輛新能源汽車,同比增長61.7%,包括插電式混合動力車、純電動車、燃料電池電動車。

其中,插電式混合動力汽車銷售為27.1萬輛,比上年同期增長118%;電動汽車銷售完成98.4萬輛,比上年同期增長50.8%;燃料電池汽車產銷均完成1527輛。

業界原本預計,今年國內新能源汽車銷量能達160萬輛。

不過,根據長江電力設備新能源6月的報告,中國主流電動車企業比亞迪、北汽新能源、上汽集團、長城汽車、廣汽自主、吉利汽車、長安汽車最新的2019年產銷目標調整,大約下調了30%—40%左右。

這意味著相關的電池訂單也將下調相應幅度。

更糟糕的是,電池價格在下降。

據市場報價,目前磷酸鐵鋰電池價格為0.8—0.9元/Wh,三元電池價格為1—1.1元/Wh,與2017年年初磷酸鐵鋰電池2.6元/Wh、三元電池約為2.5元/Wh的價格相比,已經降低了兩倍多,處于低位。

墨柯認為6月25日之后,在車企削減訂單的壓力下,電池價格可能會進一步下降,這將進一步削弱電池廠商的盈利能力。

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